James O’Dwyer (@ODwyer1010)
Toronto Raptors 2019/20 Season Preview
The Raptors were last years NBA Champs and yet, following such a wild off-season and intriguing draft, everyone seems to have forgotten about them. The notable injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson cast a sad shadow over the series for many neutral fans, but as the Raptors faithful will remind you, Toronto was on a mission and deserved the championship.
Kawhi Leonard has come and gone, and so have the championship expectations (except from Raptor players and fans). It’s easy to dismiss the Raptors, now they don’t have a true superstar to lead them in big moments, but any NBA fan that has the reigning champions outside of their top five predictions in the East is in for a shocking reminder. The Klaw wasn’t the only reason Larry O’Bee now resides beyond the border.
Projected Season - Playoffs (2ndRound Exit) - 54W-28L
LeBron James left the Eastern Conference throne open for the taking last season, which lead to an arms race by Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Toronto to gather as much talent as possible to have a shot at winning it all. With Kawhi gone, Jimmy signing with Miami and Brogdon going to Indiana (huge loss for the Bucks), the East has gotten weaker, however there is no doubt that the 76ers and the Bucks should be heavy favourites for the top two seeds. Indiana will miss Oladipo’s scoring and Boston’s defence will take a hit with Horford and Baynes moving on, and they are banking big time on Brown or Tatum to take a leap. I also think the Nets are marginally better than last year, and Irving has potential to disrupt the culture there. We saw flashes of what the Magic could become last year with their terrific play leading into the playoffs, but like Boston they are putting all their chips into hoping Isaac, Gordon and Fultz pan out. Miami are interesting, and are definitely better than last season, but I can’t see them breaking into the top 4-5 in the East with just the addition of an ageing Butler.
All of this means that spots 2-8 are fully up for grabs, and I believe the Raptors will finish at least top five, maybe at the three seed if there are no injuries. The Raptors should have homecourt and deal with their first-round matchup (most likely Miami/Detroit/Brooklyn) in around 6 games, but will ultimately fall to the Bucks or Philly in round 2. There is also a scenario where things go horribly wrong for the Raptors, and Gasol and Ibaka are moved at the deadline before they expire, and Kyle might possibly be traded to a contender to have another shot at a title. Philly, for example, would benefit greatly from having home-town hero Lowry on their squad.
I fully expect the Raptors to carry over the same identity from last season, where they are hungry and scrappy on defence, and move and swing the ball to find the open man. The loss of Danny Green and Leonard will be big on both ends of the floor, and the additions of Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Matt Thomas and Terence Davis won’t be enough to patch the hole. But if the newcomers buy into the culture that General Manager Masai Ujiri and Kyle Lowry have built, the Raptors could definitely maintain their status as a top five defence in the league. The Lowry and DeRozan led teams were consistently a top four seed, and I believe this squad is better than the 17/18 team that won 60 games.
Key Players
Kyle Lowry
Kyle Lowry is the heart and soul of the Raptors franchise, a true floor general and playmaker, who lifts up those around him. Kyle is another year older and has just played his most intense season ever, so there is a possibility his scoring numbers may decline to around 11-12ppg, but his assists should still sit around 8 per game. If Kyle stays healthy, the offence will feature heavy ball movement with an emphasis on getting an open three, hitting cutters and getting out on the break. Lowry mentioned in his recent Players Tribune article that the teams focus is ‘on getting another one’ and he doesn’t feel like he is near the end of his journey, so if all goes to plan, he should have another terrific season.
Pascal Siakam
Pascal Siakam just secured the bag from the Raptors after proving himself in the playoffs. Siakam averaged 19ppg whilst dealing with Isaac, Embiid, Giannis and then Draymond Green on the defensive end, so I have no doubt he will be capable as a first option when surrounded by great passers like Lowry and Gasol. Siakam is always first out on the break and is very crafty finishing around the ring. He showed off an improved handle and midrange game over the Summer in the Rico Hines runs, which hopefully translates into the regular season. He shot 35.9% on threes last year, however that nose-dived in the playoffs to 28%, so it is clear Siakam isn’t the most reliable shooter. Thankfully for the Raptors, the rest of his game is so well rounded that shooting over 35%+ on threes would be icing on the cake. I fully expect Pascal to make his first All-Star team this year, especially if the Raptors are high in the seeding come February.
Marc Gasol
Marc barely had an offseason this Summer, leading Spain to the FIBA World Cup Gold medal only a few months after the Finals concluded. The Raptors were careful with him in training camp and preseason to ensure he wasn’t overloaded, which should help in the long run. Marc should have a greater role in the offence now that he has had more time to prepare and play with the team, so hopefully we see him confidently shoot the open jumpers and demand the ball when he has a mismatch down low. But Marc will have the biggest impact on this team through his incredible passing. Now that OG Anunoby is back, Marc should find him, Norman Powell, Pascal and Terence Davis cutting through the key for some monster slams.
Serge Ibaka
As Raptors writer William Lou pointed out on Twitter last week, Serge Ibaka looks like he is ageing backwards in the footage we have seen from preseason. He’s been active around the boards, his passing is looking much improved (less tunnel vision in the post and after rebounds), and he just looks totally in control. Ibaka looked great last year, averaging 15ppg and 1.4 blocks coming off the bench, a role he has completely embraced. He will most likely also be motivated to play at the highest level possible because his contract expires this year, so expect Ma Fuzzy Chef to be cooking on and off the floor.
The Future of the Franchise
OG Anunoby
OG is finally healthy and ready to go. Many optimistic Raptor fans have compared him to Kawhi, but honestly OG just being a solid 3&D player right now is what this team needs. His handle doesn’t look like its exactly where it should be if he’s going to be dribbling a lot, so all OG needs to do is be a lockdown defender, and a knockdown shooter. He shot 37% in his first year from deep, but only 33% last year, so Raptors fans will be hoping he can get back to his rookie year in terms of consistency. OG has the athleticism and the explosiveness, so as long as he’s not being asked to create offence, he’ll be a productive starter.
Fred VanVleet
Fred came alive in the Eastern Conference Finals vs the Bucks, and never cooled off. Despite carrying himself like a veteran, Fred is only 25 and is about to enter the prime of his career. The starting spot for shooting guard is up in the air at the moment between Fred or Powell, but if Fred continues where he left off (shooting 39% from deep in the playoffs), it will be hard to deny him the honour of starting. Fred’s next step to elevate his game is to develop his playmaking ability. Running the pick and roll/pop effectively with Serge this season will be instrumental to the bench’s spacing and scoring and will be a great way for Fred to get those assist numbers up.
Terence Davis
Raptors rookie point guard Terence Davis could be another steal. After going undrafted, he is looking like the extra punch the Raptors will need off the bench. He is explosive and has a great looking jumper and can be played at 1 or the 2. He had some questionable decision-making moments in the preseason games, however that is fairly standard for a rookie. Masai has a great recent history of finding undrafted steals (see: Fred VanVleet), so hopefully TD can give the crowd some unforgettable moments in his rookie season.
Strengths - Defensive Intensity and Teamwork
The Raptors main strength will be their defence. Defence wins championships, and they proved that last year, but it will be a different story now that former defensive player of the year winner Kawhi is gone. However, even in preseason, coach Nick Nurse was calling out Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Stanley Johnson and even sharpshooter Matt Thomas for their lack of intensity on the defensive end, so it is clear Nurse wants to continue with the championship standard. The offence may stagger at times, which is why getting stops will be vital to allow the Raptors to use their pace on the break.
Teamwork and chemistry are intangible strengths that the Raptors have the luxury of after bringing back 3/5 of the starters from last season. Everyone knows and accepts their role, and there won’t be any bickering or fighting over minutes because most of the players know there is a bigger goal to play for other than themselves. Masai and Bobby Webster only bring in players who work hard on the defensive end and give 100% effort towards team success, and the 2019/20 Raptors will be no different.
Weaknesses - No Reliable First Option
The lack of a go-to scorer or crunch time player is going to hurt the Raptors, probably more so in the post-season than in the regular season. DeRozan had some memorable clutch moments and could create his own shot when nothing else was working, and Kawhi, well he was that and more. The NBA proves more and more every year that it is a league of stars, and a top 5 player will usually get you a shot at the title. There is belief among the optimists that Pascal can evolve into this type of player, but I think that is at least one to two more years away, if it ever happens. If the Raptors face Philly or the Bucks in the second round, it’s possible that Embiid or Giannis just might be too much for them to handle in a seven-game series.
Summary
I think the Raptors still have the talent, the experience and the hunger to compete. They will be back to being underrated, but that’s just how it is when you’re the only Canadian team in an American league. It could go horribly wrong or incredibly well, but the excitement for the season grows stronger every day as we get closer to seeing the banner raised up North.
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