Sunday, June 30th 6pm ET. That is when the NBA free agency period will 'officially' open (what is tampering?) and we will be bombarded with tweets, posts and plenty of ‘Woj-bombs’. As NBA fans eagerly await this day and the copious levels of dopamine that will inevitably pulse through them as each tidbit of news drops, we thought we’d give a few of our thoughts on the potential landing places of this year’s stacked free agency class.
Kevin Durant – SF, Golden State Warriors
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Golden State Warriors
If I had written this article back even as recently as early June, I would’ve had the New York Knicks in my top 3 possible teams for KD. All year the narrative surrounding his free agency was that he would make a move to the Knicks with Kyrie Irving and help restore the historic franchise to its former glory. However, a plethora of game-changing events have happened since then: the Knicks fell to the 3rd pick in the Zion sweepstakes, Kyrie has seemingly decided on joining the Brooklyn Nets and worst of all, Durant suffered a heartbreaking Achilles injury in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. While it is definitely possible that he returns to Golden State on a shorter 1 year + ‘player-option’ deal to recover in a familiar location, the manner in which his injury occurred and the subsequent lack of trust he and his family may have in Golden State’s medical team means he could prefer a max deal with the Nets and the financial security that comes with it.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Clippers
All I’m going to say is, don’t count out Jerry West.
Kawhi Leonard – SF, Toronto Raptors
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Los Angeles Clippers
2. Toronto Raptors
Following his performance in the NBA Finals, Kawhi has cemented himself as the likely best player in the league and the saviour of Canadian basketball. Having secured the “Larry O’B” for Toronto, Kawhi has done more than enough and is in a rare situation where he could leave a championship team in free agency without much outrage. While Raptors fans without a doubt would be crushed if he left, this scenario would draw more comparisons to LeBron leaving Cleveland in 2018 than 2010. He has been linked for over a year with a return to his hometown and there appears to be truth to this noise. Taking all of this into consideration, we predict Kawhi heads home to California to join up with the rising, young Clippers. That being said, a return to Toronto would not surprise anyone - this one really is 50/50.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Lakers
Kawhi is undoubtedly an alpha dog, and he has proven he can carry a team to an NBA championship, so why would he want to be the 2nd or 3rd option at times on a Lakers squad already filled with star power? That being said, could the thought of pairing up with LeBron (who would likely be willing to take more of a back seat as he ages) and Anthony Davis sway Kawhi? Plus, he gets to go home in this scenario too.
Kyrie Irving – PG, Boston Celtics
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The reports coming out are saying this one is all but completed, with Irving set to sign with the Brooklyn Nets. After a learning experience in Boston, there is a chance Irving decides once again to team up with LeBron in Los Angeles, returning to a combo which has enjoyed so much success. The pair’s skill sets are perfect for one another, but given Kyrie left Cleveland to be the alpha dog on a championship-caliber team, this one looks unlikely as he’d now be playing third fiddle to the dynamic duo of LeBron and Davis.
Dark Horse: New York Knicks
If the Nets decide to resign D'Angelo Russell instead, opting for age and durability over talent and championship experience, Irving could become New York's salvation.
Klay Thompson – SG, Golden State Warriors
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Golden State Warriors
2. Los Angeles Clippers
Reports from Brad Turner, via Twitter, are saying Thompson will sign with the Warriors if they offer him the max, but would be open to a move to the Clippers or Lakers if not. Irrespective of Durant’s decision, the Warriors will offer Thompson a full max deal, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. He is far too ingrained to the identity of the Warriors to leave, and his combination with Curry has brought them so much success. Another point to consider is that if Durant leaves, Thompson’s role will also increase significantly - if that is something he is looking for. As we saw in the Finals, he is more than capable when called upon to create shots for himself and others.
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Lakers
Much like Kawhi, the thought of playing alongside LeBron and Davis may be enticing for Thompson. In terms of a pure basketball fit, Thompson and James would be very intriguing, with James’ elite playmaking and his drive and kick game complementing Thompson’s shooting. Another interesting side note is that Thompson will feature in Space Jam 2, alongside James and Davis.
Kemba Walker – PG, Charlotte Hornets
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Boston Celtics
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Charlotte Hornets
A supermax could be on the table for Walker in Charlotte, as well as familiarity, a starring role and a fanbase that loves him. However, the trajectory for improvement in Charlotte is not exactly trending upwards. They have several large contracts on the books and very few blue chip youngsters to build around. If Walker is aiming for an NBA championship in the near future, he may have to look elsewhere. The Mavericks and the Celtics appear to be possible suitors, with the latter clearing around $25.8 million in cap space after making moves during the NBA draft. This number could increase to $34 million if the team renounces Terry Rozier. Both teams have young cores with more talent than Charlotte, with Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown being key names, as well as top-level coaches in Rick Carlisle and Brad Stevens.
Dark Horse: New York Knicks
Walker is a New York native - could the allure of playing for his hometown team bring him to New York? This situation does seem tied to the idea of Walker having another superstar to pair with in New York.
Jimmy Butler – SG, Philadelphia 76ers
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Philadelphia 76ers
2. Houston Rockets - sign and trade
3. Brooklyn Nets
Having pushed the eventual champions to a thrilling 7 game series, ending with a wild Kawhi buzzer beater, Philadelphia knows they were inches away from glory this year. Knowing this, they will likely offer Butler everything they can and try again. Despite rumours of chemistry issues throughout the year, the 76ers still look to be Butler’s best basketball situation. As exciting as a union with Harden and Paul in Houston may appear, if not having the ball in his hands enough was a genuine gripe for him in Philadelphia then it may not be the best fit. Also, would an Eric Gordon or PJ Tucker-type player even be enough reason for Philadelphia to execute a sign-and-trade?
Dark Horse: Los Angeles Clippers
This scenario is entirely dependent on whether the Clippers are able to lure Kawhi, and importantly, whether they can sign him early in the free agency period. If they strike out on Kawhi, this becomes a less enticing destination for Butler. If Kawhi waits till day 4 or 5 of free agency to sign with the Clippers, will Butler wait for his decision? It becomes a risky situation if Butler signs with the Clippers early, since Kawhi will have his meeting with the Raptors last and could easily change his mind, thus leaving Butler stranded in LA alone.
D’Angelo Russell - PG, Brooklyn Nets
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Indiana Pacers
With Kyrie Irving all but confirmed to be signing with the Brooklyn Nets, Russell signing with Brooklyn is looking more and more unlikely. A potential option that would be quite poetic is a return to the Lakers. Having traded Russell away essentially to dump Timofey Mozgov’s contract, in a move deemed questionable at the time, bringing back a fan favourite would help Lakers fans forgive some of the sins of their front office. Through his impromptu resignation, Magic Johnson has also inadvertently removed a possible roadblock to this deal - his comments following Russell’s trade would’ve undoubtedly angered the player. Another relationship to take into account is Russell’s friendship with the Phoenix Sun’s franchise player, Devin Booker. The Suns have been in dire need of a point guard for a few years now, with Booker handling most of the on-ball duties. Also, with the recent news that Darren Collison has retired, the Pacers are in the market for a point guard and Russell could be an appealing option.
Dark Horse: Minnesota Timberwolves/Boston Celtics
If Minnesota is able to move some of their larger contracts and clear some cap room (which is a big if), Russell’s friendship with Karl-Anthony Towns may help recruit the point guard to Minnesota. Another option is the Celtics, who would essentially swap Irving for Russell.
Tobias Harris – PF, Philadelphia 76ers
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Philadelphia 76ers
2. New York Knicks
The 76ers are very much in a similar position with upcoming free agent Tobias Harris as they are with the previously mentioned Jimmy Butler. While not as much of a standout during the playoffs as Butler, Harris arguably was a better fit alongside the Simmons and Embiid tandem during the regular season, due to his ability to stretch the floor. It is highly likely Harris returns to Philadelphia to pursue another deep playoff run but if not, a team like the Knicks could throw a max contract at Harris. This likelihood of this scenario increases if the Knicks strike out on their other free agent targets.
Dark Horse: Indiana Pacers
With Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young both potentially leaving the Pacers in the coming days, the Pacers could pursue Harris as an experienced scoring wing to pair with Victor Oladipo. His age matches the Pacer's timeline and Indiana have an impressive young core that could appeal to Harris.
Khris Middleton – SG, Milwaukee Bucks
Most Likely Destinations:
1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Dallas Mavericks
It would be incredibly shocking if Middleton suits up for a team not named the Milwaukee Bucks next season. Given his talent, the fact that the Bucks would struggle to replace his output elsewhere and how close Milawukee came from reaching the NBA Finals, it would be ludicrous for the Bucks not to offer him a generous deal. Not only that, it would not be a great look for the Bucks leadership and front office, especially since a certain MVP (who values loyalty incredibly highly) will be a free agent in 2021.
Dark Horse: Dallas Mavericks
A trio of Middleton, Doncic and Porzingis would combine shooting, playmaking, defence, length and more. While unlikely, this move would vault the Mavericks into the upper echelon of the Western Conference next year and form the core of a formidable squad for years to come.
Once the first domino falls on June 30th, there will be an overwhelming cascade of signings and trades, altering the NBA landscape for the next few years. I for one, cannot wait for it to start.
Written by Curtis Lo